In less than 48 hours, the College Football Playoffs semifinal round will be over, producing the two programs that will compete for the 2026 CFP National Championship in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium on January 19th.
Two Big Ten schools will square off on one half of the bracket, while the other will feature a matchup between ACC and SEC programs. College Football sportsbooks are projecting both contests to be within 4 points or less, suggesting that all teams have a legitimate chance to advance.
#10 Miami vs. #6 Mississippi
- Spread: Miami +3.0 (EVEN) | Mississippi -3.0 (-120)
- Moneyline: Miami +145 | Mississippi -170
- Total: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
This semifinal features two of the most resilient teams in the country. Tonight at 7:30 PM, No. 10 Miami enters as the “bracket buster” after stunning defending champion Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal.
Led by veteran QB Carson Beck and a ferocious defensive line featuring Rueben Bain Jr., the Hurricanes have won six straight games. They face an Ole Miss squad that just knocked off No. 3 Georgia in a 39-34 Sugar Bowl thriller.
The Rebels’ offense is clicking at the right time, but they must contend with a Miami defense that held Ohio State scoreless for the entire first half last week.
Key for Miami will be RB Mark Fletcher Jr., the Cotton Bowl MVP, who needs to establish the run to keep the explosive Ole Miss offense off the field.
CFP betting sites are giving Ole Miss the edge, but we believe UM will cover and possibly win.
#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 (EVEN) | Indiana -3.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Oregon +155 | Indiana -180
- Total: Over 49.0 (-105) | Under 49.0 (-115)
In a rare postseason rematch tomorrow at 7:30 PM between Big Ten rivals, top-seeded Indiana looks to remain perfect against an Oregon team seeking revenge.
The Hoosiers reached the semifinal by dismantling Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, led by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, who threw three touchdowns in the rout.
Oregon advanced following a dominant 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Ducks’ only loss this season was a 30-20 defeat to Indiana in October, a game in which Oregon QB Dante Moore struggled under pressure.
A major storyline is the health of Oregon’s backfield, with star Jordon Davison out, Noah Whittington takes over as the lead back against Indiana’s elite run defense.
This game serves as a final audition for Mendoza and Moore, both of whom are projected as top picks for the 2026 NFL Draft.
National Championship Game Winner
- Indiana (#1)+125
- Miami (#10)+300
- Oregon (#5)+330
- Mississippi (#6)+600
Unbeaten No. 1 Indiana (+125) is the heavy favorite to win its first national title after dominant wins over Ohio State and Alabama. Miami (+300) holds the second-best odds following its quarterfinal upset of the Buckeyes. Oregon (+330) remains a strong contender, while Ole Miss (+600) is the long shot.
CFP National Championship 2025-26 Exact Result
- Indiana to beat Miami +275
- Indiana to beat Ole Miss +400
- Miami to beat Indiana +500
- Oregon to beat Miami +650
- Miami to beat Oregon +775
- Oregon to beat Ole Miss +850
- Ole Miss to beat Indiana +1000
- Ole Miss to beat Oregon +1200
The most likely outcome features the undefeated Hoosiers defeating Miami in the finale. However, if the Hurricanes or Rebels pull off a semifinal upset, the landscape shifts.
A rematch between Big Ten powers Indiana and Oregon remains a top possibility, while Ole Miss enters as the dark horse looking to capitalize on their high-octane offense.